Fund Flows Favor Bonds Over Stocks, but Returns May Not Follow

Posted by lplresearch Economic Blog After pulling back in the first quarter of 2020, flows into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dominated stocks in the second quarter. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the second quarter is consistent with recent history, as bond flows have topped stock flows in 15 of […]

July 15, 2020

Why A Potential Democrat Sweep May Not Be A Market Worry

Posted by lplresearch Market Blog Based on the latest polling data, there’s growing consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden potentially may win the election and Democrats possibly may sweep Congress. Some might think this could be a negative for stocks, as a higher corporate tax rate that reduces earnings could be part of the Democratic […]

Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence

Posted by lplresearch Economic Blog We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of the US economy, as traditional monthly and quarterly economic data are […]

July 16, 2020

Retail Sales Beat Again

Posted by lplresearch Economic Blog Retail sales data for June was reported on Thursday, handily beating expectations for the second consecutive month. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, June saw a 7.5% increase month over month, compared with Bloomberg’s consensus expectations for a 5% gain. This comes on the heels of a more […]

July 17, 2020

Let’s Get Real About Yields

Posted by lplresearch Economic Blog While the 10-year Treasury yield has traded in a narrow range since early April, the equivalent real yield, represented by the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), has continued to fall and could go lower. Real yields remove the impact of inflation. As shown in the LPL Chart of the […]

July 21, 2020

Street View: Midyear Outlook 2020

July 23, 2020

Dollar Weakness May Continue

Posted by lplresearch Economic Blog The US dollar was remarkably strong during the first quarter of 2020, benefitting from the flight to safety and rallying to nearly a 10% year-to-date gain at the stock market’s low point on March 23. However, as equity markets have recovered, and the US has continued to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, […]

Leading Indicators Elicit Cautious Optimism

Posted by lplresearch Leading economic indicators continued to rebound in June, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in May. Yesterday, The Conference Board released its June report detailing the latest reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of data series that tend to lead changes in economic activity. As seen in the LPL […]

July 24, 2020

That’s Not A Bubble, This Is A Bubble

Posted by lplresearch Market Blog “That’s not a knife … that’s a knife!” Paul Hogan in Crocodile Dundee There is growing talk that growth stocks and specifically technology stocks are in a bubble. But as Paul Hogan showed is in the classic 1986 film, not everything is what it seems, and there is always something bigger […]

July 27, 2020

Stalling Economic Recovery May Slow Stock Market Rally

JULY 27, 2020  LPL RESEARCH The stock market has shown some weakness recently, and timely data indicates the economic recovery may have stalled. Weekly jobless claims have increased, too. Investors are asking if the long-awaited market pullback is here. Stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves in the short term, and the volatility at the […]

July 28, 2020