Federal Reserve Meeting Recap: We Have Liftoff

Posted by lplresearch Thursday, March 17, 2022 The Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday and, as expected, the Committee voted (not unanimously however) to increase the fed funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) and signaled further rate increases were appropriate. Highlighting the disparate views on the Committee (also […]

March 17, 2022

The Fed’s long-run “Goldilocks scenario”

Posted by lplresearch Friday, March 18, 2022 Inflation and its Discontents Policy makers often talk about a “Goldilocks scenario” which is when inflation and economic growth are neither “too hot” nor “too cold”, allowing the economy to advance at just the right temperature. If the economy is at trend growth and is not experiencing exogenous shocks, […]

March 18, 2022

Three Things That Happened Last Week That Have Bulls Smiling

Posted by lplresearch Monday, March 21, 2022 Last week was quite the week for stocks, as the S&P 500 Index gained 6.2% for its best week of the year and best weekly gain since the week of the US election in early November 2020. View enlarged chart. In the process there were some very positive signs […]

March 21, 2022

Can Bonds Bounce Back?

Posted by lplresearch Tuesday, March 22, 2022 Core fixed income returns are off to one of the worst starts to a year ever. With fixed income markets quickly repricing the prospects of accelerated Fed rate hikes this year, yields across the U.S. Treasury curve have moved higher, putting downward pressure on bond prices across most fixed […]

March 22, 2022

The Bull Market Turns Two

Posted by lplresearch Wednesday, March 23, 2022 The bear market ended two years ago today and the subsequent bull market has clearly been an amazing ride. For some context, it was the fastest bull market to double ever, at just under 18 months. View enlarged chart. Here’s where it ranks against the other bull markets that […]

March 23, 2022

Path to Multiple Expansion Gets Tougher

Posted by lplresearch Thursday, March 24, 2022 Stocks are only down about 6.5% from record highs in January based on the S&P 500 Index. While hardly cause for celebration, in the face of war in Ukraine, surging inflation, and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, it’s fair to say stocks have been resilient in the […]

March 24, 2022

Higher Frequency Data Point to Slower Growth

Posted by lplresearch Friday, March 25, 2022 Higher Frequency Data Point to Slower Growth Despite our recent downgrade to U.S. GDP we did see risks to the downside and both data and events are confirming persistent concerns about some of those risks. We still think above-trend growth is very likely in 2022 and recession risks remain low, even […]

March 25, 2022

Here Comes the Best Month of the Year

Posted by lplresearch Wednesday, March 30, 2022 After one of the worst starts to a year ever for stocks, March has seen a huge bounce. Incredibly, the S&P 500 Index is only about 4% away from new all-time highs. The big question is can the near-term strength continue? “The good news is stocks really appear to […]

March 30, 2022

The Devil is in the Details

Posted by lplresearch Thursday, March 31, 2022 The real change in March consumer confidence masked by February revisions. According to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, consumer confidence “increased” in March to 107.2, but that is based off the sizable downward revision to the initial February level. March consumer confidence is actually lower than last month’s […]

March 31, 2022

US Earnings Outlook the Envy of the World

Posted by lplresearch Thursday, March 31, 2022 Stocks have rallied back nicely over the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 up more than 10% off its March 14 low. While some would suggest that the market is sniffing out a potential compromise to end Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine, which is certainly possible, that’s […]