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The Great Divide – Energy Sector & Crude Oil
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Thursday, December 1, 2022 The S&P 500 Energy Sector and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil have meaningfully decoupled over the last several months. The divergence in performance started over the summer and became more pronounced near the end of September when WTI dropped to year-to-date (YTD) […]
December 1, 2022
Job Market Remains Resilient Despite Higher Rates
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Friday, December 2, 2022 The economy added 263,000 jobs in November, a decrease from October’s upwardly revised 284,000 but a large upside surprise from the pre-release consensus estimate of 200,000, highlighting the continued resilience of labor markets even as job growth continues to slow. Adding to the […]
December 2, 2022
Credit Usage Rising But No Red Flags Yet
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, December 8, 2022 Should We Be Nervous About Rising Credit Usage? Consumers are in a pinch: inflation is high and inflation-adjusted wage growth is weak. To support spending habits, consumers are tapping into credit and savings to bridge the gap between high prices and historical spending. Consumer […]
December 8, 2022
Make or Break for the Dollar
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, December 9, 2022 Selling pressure over the last several weeks has left the U.S. Dollar Index near an inflection point. Falling interest rates have primarily been responsible for the recent decline. Prior to last month’s 5% drop (the largest since 2010), the dollar was trending sharply […]
December 9, 2022
Will Fed Chair Powell Push Back on Markets… Again?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, December 13, 2022 The Federal Reserve (Fed) is meeting this week and will likely increase short-term interest rates by 0.50% to bring the fed funds rate to 4.50% (upper bound). The 0.50% increase represents a step-down in the pace of hikes, though the cumulative increase to date […]
December 13, 2022
More Muted Market Reaction to Cooler Inflation Data
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, December 14, 2022 Equity markets responded to yesterday’s cooler than expected inflation data in similar, but eventually much more muted, fashion to how they responded earlier in this rate hiking cycle. November’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 6.0% […]
December 14, 2022
Fed Makes Hawkish Tilt
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, December 15, 2022 Slower Growth and Higher Inflation As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the fed funds rate yesterday by 0.50% and made upward revisions to both inflation forecasts and interest rate forecasts in the next few years. The target range is now 4.25–4.50%. […]
December 15, 2022
When Doves Cry
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, December 16, 2022 It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates by an expected 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. The surprise factor came from the updated Summary of […]
December 16, 2022