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Markets Off to a Strong Start in 2023, but Can It Continue?
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Thursday, February 2, 2023 The first month of 2023 is now behind us and it felt very different than 2022. In 2022, the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) both fell and there was much talk of the demise of the “60/40” portfolio […]
February 2, 2023
A Short and Shallow Recession: How It Could Play Out
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Tuesday, February 7, 2023 Recession Lengths Vary Widely Recessions occur when the economy has reached a peak in economic activity and it is heading toward the subsequent trough. The economy is back in expansion mode after the trough. Although it sounds obvious, investors should remember the economy is […]
February 7, 2023
Are Bears Finally Going Into Hibernation?
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, February 10, 2023 Negative sentiment has been an ongoing theme throughout this bear market. Continuous monetary tightening, surging interest rates and inflation, and slowing growth have been a few catalysts behind the widespread pessimism. However, with stocks staging an impressive comeback since the start of the […]
February 10, 2023
An Uneven Path to Two Percent
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Tuesday, February 14, 2023 The Uneven Path For most categories, inflation is decidedly past peak. But as we see from today’s report, the pathway back down to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target of 2%, will be choppy. In January, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% from […]
February 14, 2023
Is Cash Worth the (Reinvestment) Risk
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Wednesday, February 15, 2023 Economists like to remind us there is no such thing as a free lunch. In investment parlance, that just means all investments carry risk—even cash. After last year’s aggressive rate hiking campaign from the Federal Reserve (Fed), short-term interest rates are at levels last […]
February 15, 2023
Debt Ceiling Standoff Back in Focus
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Thursday, February 16, 2023 The debt limit—commonly called the debt ceiling—is the maximum amount of debt the Treasury Department is authorized to borrow to pay its already committed financial obligations. The amount is set through Congress and has been increased 78 times since 1960. Last raised by […]
February 16, 2023
Foundation Set for a Bottom in Homebuilders
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, February 17, 2023 Key Conclusions: Housing market data and homebuilder stocks have diverged over the last several months. Rising interest rates and the subsequent spillover into mortgage rates poured cold water on the post-pandemic housing market melt-up. The national average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped from […]
February 17, 2023
No Landing = No Sense
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Tuesday, February 21, 2023 The “Landing” Analogy We need to go back a few years to recall the time investors began using the “landing” analogy. During the hot summer of the mid-1990s, the Honorable Alan Greenspan spoke to the Economic Club of New York, where he was introduced […]
February 21, 2023
Leading Indicators Signal Caution Over Next Six Months
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Thursday, February 23, 2023 The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for January was released Friday, February 17, 2023. The LEI is an aggregate of 10 economic and market indicators that tend to lead changes in economic activity. The index declined 0.3% for the month and 5.9% […]
February 23, 2023
Doctor Copper, Give me the News
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, February 24, 2023 Key Conclusions: There is no shortage of headlines reminding investors a recession is imminent. Yield curves remain inverted, manufacturing activity is contracting, the housing market is tumbling, and other leading economic indicators continue to decline, all while the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to […]
February 24, 2023