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Volatility at Lowest Level Since 2021 – What Could This Mean for Stocks?
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Thursday, August 20, 2023 Implied volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), closed yesterday at 16.46, its lowest closing level since mid-November 2021. Today we take a look at possible reasons for the decline in the VIX and what it could […]
April 20, 2023
No Respect Recovery
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, April 21, 2023 Key Takeaways: No Respect The market and Rodney Dangerfield have a lot in common these days – they both get no respect! Despite the S&P 500’s technical progress powered by a 7.5% gain this year, investor sentiment and positioning remain significantly bearish. Cash […]
April 21, 2023
Buy in May and Enjoy the Stay?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, May 2, 2023 In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we noted the seasonal stock market pattern in which stocks generally produce the best returns from November through April and the worst returns from May through October (although we note this pattern hasn’t been true recently). But most investors […]
May 2, 2023
Fed Sets Up for a Pause
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, May 4, 2023 Overview Softer Language The Fed raised rates for the tenth consecutive time, pushing the upper bound of the fed funds rate to 5.25%, the highest since August 2007. Markets were not surprised by that decision but many took note of the conspicuous removal of […]
May 4, 2023
Battle Inside the Beltway
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, May 5, 2023 Key Takeaways: Backdrop As if rate hikes, rising recession risk, and another bank rescue were not enough to deal with, the market is now gearing up for a battle inside the Beltway as Democrats and Republicans spar over solutions to avoid a default […]
May 5, 2023
Inflation with a 4 Handle
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Wednesday, May 10, 2023 Overview View enlarged chart Markets Believe Inflation Moving in Right Direction As inflation moves in the right direction, investors are right to believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting in June. Headline inflation is showing […]
Stock Returns and Recessions Around Inflation Peaks
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Thursday, May 11, 2023 We are coming up on being a full year removed from the peak in inflation next month, measured by the one-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%. Year-over-year inflation has decline every month since, with […]
May 11, 2023
Can Money Market Funds Sidestep a U.S. Default?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, May 16, 2023 After years of waiting for cash to be a viable asset class again, investors have flocked into money market funds to take advantage of higher Treasury yields. In fact, with over $5 trillion in assets, money market assets under management have never been […]
May 16, 2023