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Lunch Box Stagflation Isn’t Your 70s Style Slowdown
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Friday, September 23, 2022 It’s hard not to call what we’re experiencing stagflation at this point, if there are any holdouts left. With growth flat for the first half of the year, growth expectations for the rest of the year muted, inflation continuing to run very hot, […]
September 23, 2022
OPEC+ Looks To Defend Higher Oil Prices
Posted by qukrosby Wednesday, September 28, 2022 Oil prices are rising today as hurricanes in North America introduce concerns over possible disruptions of supply, coupled with an easing of the U.S. dollar. But despite this respite, unease among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) member countries continues over slower global demand and recession fears […]
September 28, 2022
How Markets Respond to Drawdowns
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Friday, September 30, 2022 “Everything in boxing is backwards.” -Eddie Dupris, “Million Dollar Baby” When markets are down, the natural bias is to sell. But looking at history, the more the S&P 500 is down, the better it does in the next year, on average. Like boxing […]
September 30, 2022
Spending, Inflation Reports Send Mixed Signals
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Friday, September 30, 2022 In a Word: “Disappointing” Revisions to July real spending and mixed signals about inflation make these latest economic reports disappointing. Real spending rose 0.1%, after falling -0.1% in July. Real spending was weak in August and revised downward in July, revealing underlying weakness in […]
September 30, 2022
Raising Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Year-end Forecast
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, October 4, 2022 The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) uses a number of quantitative models to help inform investment decisions. For interest rate forecasts specifically, we utilize a range of econometric models that take into consideration economic growth and inflation expectations, foreign interest […]
October 4, 2022
Midterm Year Seasonality Swings Favorable for Stocks
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, October 5, 2022 With so much focus on the equity bear market, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising recession risks, it’s perhaps no surprise that the buildup to the U.S. midterm elections has taken more of a backseat than in prior election cycles. […]
October 5, 2022
Checking the Gauges on Potential Market Capitulation
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Thursday, October 6, 2022 The S&P 500 hit a fresh year-to-date closing low of 3,584 on Friday September 30 before rallying almost 6% over the next 2 trading days, leading many investors to again wonder was that the bear market low? We first asked, “Was that the low?” in […]
October 6, 2022
Jobs Report Gives Hope to Soft Landing
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Friday, October 7, 2022 Mixed Feelings Many analysts are likely having mixed feelings from reading the September jobs report. Yes, the persistent gain in jobs could keep alive the dream for a soft landing. But, the tighter labor conditions will likely keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on track […]
October 7, 2022
CPI Disappoints
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, October 13, 2022 Disappointing The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rose to a multi-decade high in September, disappointing both investors and policy makers. The CPI is one, but not the only metric for inflation. September headline inflation eased slightly to 8.2% year-over […]
October 13, 2022