Stock Market Implications if Recession Arrives in 2023

Posted by Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist Wednesday, June 7, 2023 We had hoped to write a blog about the “official” start of a new bull market today, but no such luck. The S&P 500 Index closed at 4,283 on Tuesday (and is trading around that level at noon ET Wednesday), falling just 0.25% short […]

June 7, 2023

The new Street View looks at the debt deal:

When to Get Back in if We Have a Recession: The NBER Signal

Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Thursday, June 8, 2023 Key Takeaways: Let me say right off that LPL Research doesn’t believe we’re currently in a recession, although we do believe the start of a recession seems likely over the second half of the year. But if we were to have a recession, […]

June 8, 2023

The Bulls are Back in Town

Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, June 9, 2023 Key Takeaways: The bulls are back in town, at least according to the technical qualifier of a 20% advance off a bear market low. There is additional supporting evidence for the S&P 500’s bull market designation, including, but not limited to, the market’s […]

June 9, 2023

Headline Inflation at Lowest Level Since April 2021

Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Tuesday, June 13, 2023 The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came towards the lower end of expectations with the overall headline inflation falling to the lowest level since April 2021. The encouraging trend in consumer prices will provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) some leeway to keep […]

June 13, 2023

How Long Might This Bear Market Recovery Take?

Posted by Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist Wednesday, June 14, 2023 Now that the S&P 500 Index has entered a new bull market (by gaining 20% or more since the October 2022 lows), it’s logical to ask the question of when the index might achieve a new all-time high. At 4,369 on the S&P 500 […]

June 14, 2023

FOMC Recap: Connecting the Dots

Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, June 15, 2023 As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates unchanged at its meeting yesterday but communicated a hawkish bias to future interest rate decisions. With a slight tweak, the FOMC statement was modestly hawkish but still communicated to investors that the committee is […]

June 15, 2023

Volatility Regime Shift

Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, June 16, 2023 Key Takeaways: While the S&P 500 recently entered a new bull market by climbing 20% above its October 12 low, the same bear market continues for implied equity market volatility. The VIX has been trending lower since January 2022 and recently fell to […]

June 16, 2023

Multi-Family Construction Could Help Support Fed Pivot

Posted by John Lohse, CFA Wednesday, June 21, 2023 Based on data released this week, the domestic housing market for both single and multi-family units had a very strong month in May. This is important because increased construction, especially of multi-family units, should help relieve some pressure on rents, and shelter has been one of the […]

June 21, 2023

Pause and Reflect

Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, June 23, 2023 Key Takeaways: After 15 straight months of raising interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates unchanged last week during their June monetary policy meeting. The pause in rate hikes was widely expected. The surprise came in the Fed’s updated Summary […]

June 23, 2023