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More Muted Market Reaction to Cooler Inflation Data
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, December 14, 2022 Equity markets responded to yesterday’s cooler than expected inflation data in similar, but eventually much more muted, fashion to how they responded earlier in this rate hiking cycle. November’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, came in at 6.0% […]
December 14, 2022
Fed Makes Hawkish Tilt
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, December 15, 2022 Slower Growth and Higher Inflation As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the fed funds rate yesterday by 0.50% and made upward revisions to both inflation forecasts and interest rate forecasts in the next few years. The target range is now 4.25–4.50%. […]
December 15, 2022
When Doves Cry
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, December 16, 2022 It has been a painful week for those investors hoping for a shift toward dovish monetary policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates by an expected 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. The surprise factor came from the updated Summary of […]
December 16, 2022
Core Bonds Tend to do Well During Fed Pauses
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, December 20, 2022 Many financial markets are on pace for their worst year in quite some time, or in the case of core bonds, the worst year since inception of the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, which is the main core bond index. With inflationary pressures running much […]
December 20, 2022
Waiting for Santa
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, December 23, 2022 Tis’ the season for the Santa Claus Rally! This unique seasonal pattern was first discovered by Yale Hirsch in 1972. Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, defined the period as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two […]
December 23, 2022
History Says 10-Year Treasury Yield More Likely to Fall
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Tuesday, December 27, 2022 The 10-year Treasury yield has moved dramatically in 2022. But while the size of the move is in rare territory, it is far from unprecedented. The 10-year Treasury ended 2021 at 1.52%. The closing yield on Friday, December 23 was 3.75%, which would […]
December 27, 2022
Ten Charts That Defined Capital Markets In 2022
Posted by Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist Wednesday, December 28, 2022 Most investors would like to put 2022 behind them. Before we close the book on the year, we’ve assembled 10 charts that defined the year—the year in pictures. Not surprisingly, most of the charts remind us of how difficult the year was for both […]
December 28, 2022
Tracking the Three D’s
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, December 29, 2022 Not a Pessimist, Just a Realist As of November, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to decline, signaling an impending recession. However, the current state of the economy is somewhat solid as firms add to their payrolls and consumers spend on both […]
December 29, 2022