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Credit Card Balances Foreshadow Weakening Consumer
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Tuesday, August 1, 2023 Key Takeaways: What’s the Latest Trend with Credit Card Usage? Total credit card balances are getting close to a trillion dollars. As of Q1 of this year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reported card balances were $986 billion, roughly $60 billion higher than the previous […]
August 1, 2023
U.S. Government Debt Was Downgraded. Will it Matter?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Wednesday, August 2, 2023 Yesterday, one of the three main rating agencies (Fitch) downgraded U.S. government debt to its second highest rating, AA+. The agency cited “the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of […]
August 2, 2023
The Energy Sector is Getting Interesting Again
Posted by Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist Thursday, August 3, 2023 Additional content provided by John Lohse, CFA. Company Profits and Fundamentals Major oil companies have recently reported plunging second quarter profits. Weaker fossil fuel prices compared to a year ago have significantly eaten into bottom lines. Despite these second quarter results, stock prices have […]
August 3, 2023
Have Treasury Curve Spreads Bottomed?
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, August 4, 2023 Key Takeaways: Treasuries Steal the Show While it has been a busy week of S&P 500 earnings, the fixed income market stole the show. Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ put Treasuries in the spotlight and exacerbated upward […]
August 4, 2023
Job Growth Ever So Softer
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Tuesday, August 8, 2023 KEY TAKEAWAYS OVERVIEW The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported nonfarm payrolls grew by 187,000 in July, just shy of consensus. This, however, marks a slight uptick from the revised June figure of 185,000. The healthcare sector was the biggest contributor, adding 63,000 jobs, […]
August 8, 2023
Core Bond Inflows Provide Support as the Fed and Banks Step Back
Posted by Josh Whitmore, CFA, Senior Analyst Wednesday, August 9, 2023 Many investors labelled 2023 as the “Year of the Bond” following 2022’s historic bond rout (the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index (Agg) declined 12%). Broadly, fixed income returns are positive across the board in 2023. However, high quality core bond returns (proxied by the Agg) have […]
August 9, 2023
CPI Report: Falling Probabilities of a September Rate Hike
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, August 10, 2023 Additional content provided by Colby Hesson Highlights: Bottom Line: Core inflation is getting less sticky, but for the Fed to declare victory on inflation, it is imperative it unwinds at a faster and more decisive pace. The Fed’s dove versus hawk tug-of-war appears now […]
August 10, 2023
What a Pullback Could Look Like
Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist Friday, August 11, 2023 Key Takeaways: Stocks have pulled back modestly this month as overbought conditions met overhead resistance. Interest rate volatility spurred by Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, monetary policy uncertainty, stretched valuations, and underwhelming economic data in China have also weighed on risk […]
August 11, 2023
With Inflation Falling, Why Aren’t Treasury Yields Falling As Well?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Wednesday, August 16, 2023 Last week’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was the second month in a row that showed inflationary pressures were falling at a faster pace than economists’ estimates, which is undoubtedly good news. Additionally, the fall in inflationary pressures likely means the […]
August 16, 2023