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Spending, Inflation Reports Send Mixed Signals
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Friday, September 30, 2022 In a Word: “Disappointing” Revisions to July real spending and mixed signals about inflation make these latest economic reports disappointing. Real spending rose 0.1%, after falling -0.1% in July. Real spending was weak in August and revised downward in July, revealing underlying weakness in […]
September 30, 2022
Raising Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Year-end Forecast
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, October 4, 2022 The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) uses a number of quantitative models to help inform investment decisions. For interest rate forecasts specifically, we utilize a range of econometric models that take into consideration economic growth and inflation expectations, foreign interest […]
October 4, 2022
Midterm Year Seasonality Swings Favorable for Stocks
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, October 5, 2022 With so much focus on the equity bear market, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising recession risks, it’s perhaps no surprise that the buildup to the U.S. midterm elections has taken more of a backseat than in prior election cycles. […]
October 5, 2022
Checking the Gauges on Potential Market Capitulation
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Thursday, October 6, 2022 The S&P 500 hit a fresh year-to-date closing low of 3,584 on Friday September 30 before rallying almost 6% over the next 2 trading days, leading many investors to again wonder was that the bear market low? We first asked, “Was that the low?” in […]
October 6, 2022
Jobs Report Gives Hope to Soft Landing
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Friday, October 7, 2022 Mixed Feelings Many analysts are likely having mixed feelings from reading the September jobs report. Yes, the persistent gain in jobs could keep alive the dream for a soft landing. But, the tighter labor conditions will likely keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on track […]
October 7, 2022
CPI Disappoints
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, October 13, 2022 Disappointing The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rose to a multi-decade high in September, disappointing both investors and policy makers. The CPI is one, but not the only metric for inflation. September headline inflation eased slightly to 8.2% year-over […]
October 13, 2022
Investor Pessimism Still at Historic Lows
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Friday, October 14, 2022 The latest weekly data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed the percentage of individual investors who are bullish about short-term market expectations at very depressed levels (20.4%), and continued the trend of an extremely elevated proportion of bearish investors (55.9%). […]
October 14, 2022
A Lost Decade for Core Bonds?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, October 18, 2022 The start of the 2000s was a trying time for equity investors. After the dot-com bubble burst that saw equity prices fall nearly 50% from peak to trough, it took the better part of the decade to recover those losses. It took patience, but […]
October 18, 2022
Fewest up Days Since 1974 as Volatility Continues
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, October 19, 2022 Investors who feel like there have not been many good days to cheer so far this year are correct to think that way. As shown in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, the year-to-date percentage of days that the S&P 500 has […]
October 19, 2022
Will Higher Borrowing Costs Spook the Corporate Credit Markets?
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, October 25, 2022 With the aggressive front loading of rate hikes we’ve already seen from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, yields on Treasury securities are at multi-year highs. Moreover, since Treasury yields are generally used as the base rate for consumer and corporate borrowers, the increase […]
October 25, 2022