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Markets Welcome New British Prime Minister Sunak
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, October 26, 2022 British bond markets and the British pound received a boost on Tuesday as Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor of the Exchequer and Chief Secretary to the Treasury, was named the new Prime Minister (PM) of the United Kingdom (UK). Mr Sunak is expected […]
October 26, 2022
What to Say About the Rebound in Growth
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, October 27, 2022 What a Rebound After two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by a resilient consumer sector. Real personal spending, roughly 70% of the economy, grew 1.4% annualized, slightly slower than the […]
October 27, 2022
How Markets Respond to Yield Curve Inversions
Posted by Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist Tuesday, November 1, 2022 Wednesday last week, the three-month Treasury yield moved above the 10-year Treasury yield, a condition known as yield curve inversion and historically an important warning flag of elevated recession risk. But has it also been a warning flag for market returns? Historically, that […]
November 1, 2022
Some Good News and Some Bad News for the Fed
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Wednesday, November 2, 2022 Awaiting the Federal Reserve Decision While awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, investors received a few pieces of relevant news this week that could likely be topics of conversation among Fed officials. Most expect the Fed to aggressively hike the federal funds […]
November 2, 2022
Federal Reserve Meeting Recap: Slower Pace But Higher Terminal Rate?
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, November 3, 2022 The Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday and the outcome was broadly in line with market expectations. As expected, the Committee raised short-term interest rates by 0.75% to take the fed funds rate to 4.0% (upper bound). […]
November 3, 2022
Goldilocks Jobs Report Boosts Fed Slowdown Hopes
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Friday, November 4, 2022 The U.S. Labor Departments nonfarm payrolls report released today showed encouraging signs for the Federal Reserve (Fed) that a “soft landing” for the economy may still be achievable. Markets responded positively to the report data that showed a cooling of the still hot […]
November 4, 2022
The U.S. Government Could Be on the Hook for $1 Trillion in Annual Interest Expenses
Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Tuesday, November 8, 2022 With voters heading out to their local voting locations today to determine the make-up of the next U.S. Congress, regardless of the outcome, lawmakers may be tasked with doing more with less. Congress—and in particular, the House of Representatives—is invested with the “power of […]
November 8, 2022
Midterm Election Results Point to More Mixed Government
Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist Wednesday, November 9, 2022 The main takeaway from election results currently is likely a mixed government, which we continue to view as market-friendly overall. There’s still some counting to do in some key races, but it remains very likely Republicans will take the House. At a high […]
November 9, 2022
Inflation Tide Turning
Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist Thursday, November 10, 2022 Finally, an Encouraging Report After many months of inflation coming in above expectations, investors finally got a more favorable report with the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and are cheering it with a big stock market rally on the news. Both core and […]